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ゲームで大もうけの裏
  先日ガンホーさんの決算が発表されて、携帯ゲームの収益性の爆発力にまたまた周辺がにぎやかになって来ています。

自分も大型の事業計画を推進する立場としていろんなアプリやゲームの売上推移等を見ていますが、ちょっと冷静な意見を自分のためにメモ。

3年前ぐらいからシンガポールにもスマホターゲットのゲーム開発会社がとんでもない売上数字を背景に進出して来ております。

で、先週発表からガンホーさんがとんでもない成長をしてきていることが発覚し
株価も急騰。
http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20130215-00000017-scn-biz

やっぱり儲かるのはアプリゲームか!?という意見や質問が増えました。

成功者のニュースという物が世の中では誰でも可能性がある様に一気に広まりますが
その裏で

アエリアさんが9億の赤字
http://www.venturenow.jp/news/2013/02/18/1438_019735.html

ガーラさんが四半期で6億の赤字
http://www.venturenow.jp/news/2013/02/15/1044_019716.html

などのニュースがちょこちょこ上がって来てます。

まず、ガンホーさんのような大当たりコンテンツがでたということの裏には当然それ以外のコンテンツからはユーザーの課金総額が減るという事象が起こります。

日本の様々なマーケットが縮小しているのは周知の事実で、グリー、DeNAさんの成長の鈍化からも分かる様にアプリコンテンツマーケットは急成長時期を終え、これからはこの成熟したパイの取り合いになって行く段階になったと感じてます。

個人がゲームに費やすお金が急激に増えて行く事は今後は無くなるとしたら(それどころか減って行く可能性の方が高いかな)、パズドラの様な大ヒットゲームができるということは中間規模のコンテンツをやる時間がユーザから無くなり、それまでの売上維持も難しくなって消えて行くという事が同時に起こる事になります。

潤沢な資本がある企業以外は何百というゲームを生み出せる余裕は無いので、数打ちゃあたる状態になっているオンラインゲーム、アプリマーケットで大ヒット作作って一山あてるという考えではなく(なぜか相談してくる皆さん、自分のアプリはその大ヒット作になると信じきってるんだよな)
ゲームに費やされている消費以外のマーケット(育児とか教育とか食事とか)に対して価値を生み出すコンテンツや仕組みを創りだしてITコンテンツ全体のマーケットを大きくすることから考えて行かないとダメという時期に入ったと言う前提でビジネスを考えた方が良いと思います。
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